HORIZON SCANNING

Global Trade & Investment

[Dialogue] CFIUS and China: You Say De-risking, I Say Decoupling Rod Hunter, Partner at Baker McKenzie: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has evolved into a critical tool for national security policymaking, influencing policy beyond investment screening. Rod Hunter explores CFIUS’s reach, sector-specific regulations, and the long-term effects of U.S. de-risking strategies that are leading toward gradual economic decoupling from China.

By screening hundreds of foreign investments each year, CFIUS has become a “policy lab” for regulations targeting threats of espionage and disruption of sensitive IT systems.

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Global Trade & Investment

[Dialogue] Foreign Subsidies: Benefit or Threat? Elżbieta Głowicka & Anselm Mattes, Directors at E.CA Economics: The EU is ramping up enforcement against foreign subsidies, aiming to level the playing field in its internal market. But are these measures safeguarding competition or adding regulatory burdens that fragment global trade? Two economists weigh in on the short-term benefits and long-term risks.

We are wasting resources by moving towards suboptimal solutions, like second- or third-best options, instead of letting countries focus on what they do best and trading freely.

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Global Trade & Investment

[Dialogue] Financial Regulation: A Stable Zone Amid Global Frictions? Stuart Davis & Gabriel Lakeman, Partners at Latham & Watkins: Financial regulators typically prioritize compliance and prudential stability over geopolitics, addressing geopolitical risks only when they impact regulatory oversight. However, a notable localization trend is emerging, with stricter licensing requirements and cross-border limitations forcing financial services firms to increase their onshore presence.

“Businesses must show they can manage risks locally and maintain local operations during disruptions.”

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Global Trade & Investment

[Dialogue] When Data Is Crossing Borders Lothar Determann, Partner at Baker McKenzie: Data flows are the backbone of the global economy, yet complex regulations—data protection rules, data residency laws, and new legislation like the EU Data Act—are creating overlapping compliance obligations. Lothar Determann discusses the impact on competition, innovation, and how geopolitical tensions influence global data flows.

Traditionally, the U.S. has been less restrictive about transferring personal data abroad compared to Europe. However, even the U.S. is now strategically limiting access to personal information by countries it identifies as ‘strategic adversaries.

IMPLEMENTATION

AI Governance

[Dialogue] AI Standards: Killing Two Birds with One Stone? Kevin Schawinski, Co-Founder & CEO, Modulos AG: The newly introduced ISO/IEC 42001 could become the ‘gold standard’ for AI management, much like ISO 27001 for cybersecurity. Kevin Schawinski breaks down what this means for businesses seeking compliance, trust, and market access. However, with regulatory uncertainty surrounding its recognition under the EU AI Act, questions remain about its legal weight.

There are very few auditors currently accredited to certify AI systems under standards like ISO/IEC 42001. If you wait until the last minute, you will find yourself at the back of a long queue.

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AI Governance

[Dialogue] Investigations: How to Prepare, How to Respond

Cynthia J. Cole, Global Chair of Commercial, Technology & Transactions, Baker McKenzie: How can companies prepare for investigations into their AI systems? In the U.S., multiple agencies are expected to take action, with a strong focus on personal accountability and AI’s impact on consumers. Companies under investigation should immediately enforce litigation holds, preserve AI-related data, and establish clear internal and external communication channels. Boards should maintain proactive oversight to reduce liabilities and enhance regulatory credibility.

AI leveraging health, financial, or employment data seem particularly sensitive. This is because governments have always been concerned about the misuse of such data. Where AI exacerbates the risk of misuse, you can expect regulators to intervene.

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[Slides] Deepseek, Open-Weight AI, and U.S. Export Controls – What is the Impact? 20Minds Quick Takes: What is the impact of DeepSeek's success on U.S. export control? DeepSeek AI’s r1 is an open-weight model, meaning its weights—the numerical parameters defining its functionality—are publicly available for download, use, and modification at no cost. Interestingly, the recently announced U.S. Framework for the Responsible Diffusion of Advanced AI Technology by the Bureau of Industry and Security-U.S. Department of Commerce does not impose restrictions on open-weight models, meaning they can generally be exported without controls.  More than that, the framework sets open-weight models as a baseline for regulation—closed weight models are not controlled if their weights are less powerful than "the most advanced open-weight models". So, if open-weight models, like DeepSeek, match or surpass the performance of closed-weight models, do export controls on the latter become irrelevant?

OPTIMIZATION

[Toolkit] SMART Goal-Setting for Legal Teams Shanti Ariker, Chief Legal Officer, JFrog: Goals aren’t just a corporate buzzword—they’re the key to execution. Together with Shanti Ariker, we are developing the SMART Goal-Setting Template to help legal teams set clear, measurable, and achievable objectives. The toolkit includes:

• A strategy house framework for defining purpose, priorities, and enablers
• Goal-tracking templates tailored to different industries and functions
• Practical insights from legal leaders

First things first: goals. Love 'em or hate 'em, they’re the secret sauce for actually getting things done. If you write it down and measure it, it might actually happen. If you don’t, well, you’re winging it. And winging it isn’t a strategy—it's a meme.

Interested in joining the effort? Reach out to flora@twentyminds.com for details!